End of the Reign of LDP

Despite much anticipated hope, Taro Aso - Japan's four prime minister in three years, has failed like his predecessors to gain popularity and to regain the public's support for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Yesterday, in the Tokyo local election (considered the bellwether for the national election), the opposition party - the Democratic party of Japan (DPJ) - won 54 seats compared to LDP's 38 in the assembly. With a total of 61 seats, the LDP and its coalition partner, New Komeito, lost its majority in the 127-member Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly. With high public dissatisfaction, voter turnout for the election was approximately 54%.

The current PM, Taro Aso, may dissolve the lower house as early as Tuesday this week and call for a general election in late August. The defeat of the DPJ over the LDP, which has had five decades of uninterrupted rule besides a short period in 1993, in the general election for the Diet, will be a historic moment in Japanese politics. Yet, this forthcoming change is not too surprising considering the state of the current Japanese economy (worth than the bubble that hit two decades ago) and the succession of weak leadership represented by the LDP since 2006 when Koizumi stepped down. Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda, and soon Taro Aso all leave a very short and unmemorable legacy to the LDP.

Will Yukio Hatoyama and his DPJ be able to bring forth positive change to Japan? It has promised much including new tax cuts and increased spending on social welfare (critical considering the rising aging population). Furthermore, ironically, amidst fund-raising scandals, the party has also pledged to be more accountable and less bureaucratic. However, as Harris and Murphy point out in their article, Can the DPJ Bring Democracy to Japan?, "the DPJ's success so far is clearly due to the LDP's unpopularity." They discuss in-depth the challenges that await the DPJ: http://www.feer.com/essays/2009/july/can-the-dpj-bring-democracy-to-japan

*Hatoyama in front of his campaign poster (above)